Future Tense

Welcome back for another installment of my weekly look at life down on the farm (systems, that is). Before we get to the players still down in the minors, we have the promotion of one big-time prospect, Buster Posey, to talk about first. Posey was crushing Triple-A pitching, hitting .349 with six homers, 32 RBI, 31 runs, and an OPS of .995. The question remains though; is this promotion a good thing for Posey? He certainly wants to get to the majors as soon as possible, but at the same time he will be serving as the backup, and how much playing time he will receive has yet to be fully determined. He has done great so far in his debut weekend, and the Giants will likely get him into the lineup four or five games a week, either at catcher or first.

Another significant call-up occurred this week in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates’ 2004 first round selection, Neil Walker, made his major league debut. After filling in for a couple of days at third base while Andy LaRoche was out with back issues, he has moved over to second base, benching the worthless Akinori Iwamura. While that one move will not instantly make the Pirates contenders, it does make them significantly better. Unlike Posey, the 24-year-old Walker will play every day, and he is most definitely here to stay.

One player that should definitely be up if not for the stupidity of his franchise is Kila Ka'aihue. The Royals have one prospect definitely ready for the majors, and he’s the one they block with the ridiculous signing of Jose Guillen. Ka'aihue is currently hitting .342 with ten home runs, 33 RBI, 30 runs, and an OPS of 1.173. There is no logical explanation as to why he is in Triple-A other than idiotic management. Is he defensively challenged? Yes. Is he better for the team’s future though than Guillen? Anyone that cannot see that simply doesn’t have a clue.

Sticking to Triple-A, next up on our list today is Jake Arrieta, a starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles currently pitching for New Orleans in the International League. Arrieta finished last year in New Orleans with respectable results, going 5-8 with a 3.93 ERA in 17 starts with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 78:33, but he was pretty hittable with a batting average against of .276, so it was back to Triple-A to open this year. He has been far less hittable this year, with a .181 batting average against, but his control numbers have suffered somewhat, as his strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped below 2:1 with 55 strikeouts and 32 walks in 63 innings. He has righted those control issues over his last two starts though, going 2-0 with 0.64 ERA and 16 strikeouts with just four walks in 14 innings. One major plus for Arrieta is that he is very good at keeping the ball on the ground, and he has allowed just three home runs this season in a park and league that are pretty friendly to the hitters.

Arrieta was teammates with Chris Tillman, who made his return to the majors on Saturday. Barely 22, Tillman was 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA at the time of his promotion, with 47 strikeouts and 12 walks in 57 2/3 innings. While not the groundball pitcher Arrieta is, Tillman has done a very good job of keeping the ball in the park, with just four home runs surrendered in 57 2/3 innings with New Orleans. That success did not stay with him in his start against the Blue Jays on Saturday though, as he surrendered two home runs to them in 5 2/3 innings, but there’s no shame in that considering how many home runs the Jays have hit thus far – heck, they probably hit one while I was typing that, and it’s 7:00 AM. Tillman has more upside than Arrieta, but both look to be key players for the Orioles in 2011 and beyond.

Jeremy Hellickson continues to dominate the International League, and he has been downright filthy of late. In his last two starts, he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, a 12:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a WHIP of  .043. Hellickson has already proven that he is ready for the majors, but he unfortunately is in a system with the best major league rotation, if not the best overall team in the majors – and who ever thought that would be true of the Rays? Hellickson’s best chance of contributing this year would be a trade, and while that’s unlikely an injury down the stretch to a key player could put Hellickson on the block, and he would easily be the biggest bargaining chip on the table at the trade deadline.

Over in the Pacific Coast League, Madison Bumgarner is the West Coast equivalent of Hellickson, and he is currently 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA in ten starts, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 40:16 over 56 1/3 innings. One negative for Bumgarner is that he has had a few games this year where he has been very hittable, giving him a batting average against of .277 for the season. Still, he has been good about scattering those hits and stranding those runners on base, and there is very little left for Bumgarner to prove at this level before the Giants make the call. The Giants’ rotation is not as strong as the Rays, with a glaring weakness being No. 5 starter Todd Wellemeyer, so look for the Giants to bring the 20-year-old Bumgarner up at some point over the next couple of months, and definitely by August 1.

Unfortunately for Brandon Laird, the Yankees are not going to make room anytime soon for him at third base, but he is having a very solid year for the Trenton Thunder of the Double-A Eastern League. Through 49 games, Laird is hitting .316 with ten home runs, 11 doubles, 50 RBI, and 36 runs scored over 193 at-bats. Laird has kept the strikeouts low with just 31 and he has a respectable on-base percentage at .362. With no need at all to rush the 22-year-old Laird, look for the Yankees to leave him in Double-A for the full season, with a promotion to Triple-A next year and a shot at the major league club in 2012.

Also 22, Ryan Kalish is off to a great start in his first full season at Double-A, playing for the Portland Sea Dogs in the Eastern League. The Red Sox are an organization that heavily values batting eye and patience at the plate, so they have to be thrilled with Kalish, who has taken more walks (27) so far than strikeouts (21), giving him an on-base percentage .111 points above his .288 batting average, at .399. Kalish has both power and speed, with the power coming in eight doubles and eight homers, and he has successfully stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts. The Red Sox’s outfield has been patchwork mishmash this season, so look for Kalish to get a chance at some point soon, and he should be given an opportunity to break camp with the major league club this upcoming spring.

A name to watch that was promoted to Double-A this week is Reds’ catcher Devin Mesoraco.  Playing for the Lynchburg Hillcats in the High-A Carolina League, Mesoraco was hitting .335 with ten homers, 11 doubles, 31 RBI, 24 runs scored, and an on-base percentage of .414. Mesoraco made his Double-A debut on Saturday with a pinch-hit appearance and he made his first start yesterday, going 1-for-3 with a home run. Mesoraco should spend the rest of the season with the Carolina Mudcats, and the 21-year-old catcher (he turns 22 on June 19) should open 2011 in Triple-A.

That does it for this week’s column. Later this morning on Crucial Taunt, we’ll have today’s “Between the Lines” feature, and we’ll be back here next Monday with more prospecting.