The conflict in Georgia might be winding down, and is already off most of the news coverage, but it is far from an ending. The conflicts over South Ossetia and Abkhazia signal the beginnings of a policy the Russians announced months ago, a warning we chose to ignore. As the Bush White House has shown throughout, however, they do rather poorly with warnings.
Most importantly, when you see the warnings the Russians issued, it is hard to argue that they do not have a valid point.
The conflict in Georgia today started in February with the declaration of independence, followed by near-immediate recognition by the international community, of Kosovo. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, then still serving as President, stated before the declaration, "I will yet again emphasize that we consider that unilateral support for independence for Kosovo is immoral and illegal… I don't want say anything that would offend anyone, but for 40 years northern Cyprus has practically had independence. Why aren't you recognizing that? Aren't you ashamed, Europeans, for having these double standards?" He later added, "We have Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Trans-Dniester and they say Kosovo is a special case? There are no particularities there and everyone understands this perfectly."
The next day, Russia’s foreign minister similarly stated, "We will, without doubt, have to take into account a declaration and recognition of Kosovo independence in connection with the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
In other words, we should have seen this coming, but this administration is not exactly good at dealing with the obvious.
Now, Russia has stepped up calls for international recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and this time Russia has military in place ready to enforce this. The question before the international community is, what now? Senator John McCain has been adamant that there must be restoration of current internationally recognized borders of Georgia, and he has been forceful in his condemnation of Russia. However, how Senator McCain feels the United States can actually enforce this remains unknown. Further, one has to wonder how much will the rest of the international community has to fight Russia on this issue – after all, Russia does race valid points in regards to self-determination for the peoples mentioned in comparison to Kosovo. Are we as a nation really up for fighting a Cold War alone?
One thing for sure is that Russia will not rest here. Trans-Dniester, or Pridnestrovie as it is known is Russian, merited mention by Prime Minister Putin for a reason. As in South Ossetia, Transnistria, as it is most commonly known, is a breakaway region, this one in Moldova, that established full autonomy for themselves by way of civil war, this one the War of Transnistria. In addition, like South Ossetia, there are Russian forces in Transnistria acting as “peacekeepers.” These forces, Moldova complains, should have left over 15 years ago, and yet still, they remain. The Russians have made one excuse after another as to why the Russian forces should still be there, but there they are, and there they will remain.
Besides the Russian presence, the other threat posed by Transnistria is on the criminal front, as the region is a hotbed for trafficking in arms, drugs, and people. A 2005 article in the Independent referred to this region as “the continent's most lawless and porous frontier.” Nothing has changed at all in the region since, and the fact that one of the areas where arms are supposedly smuggled too being Abkhazia might mean that the Russians in Transnistria might be turning the one eye they were barely watching these activities with.
Nothing Prime Minister Putin says is by accident. Let’s hope that someone in the White House picks up on it, or there will be another hotbed to worry about before the next administration takes over. Considering the geographic placement of Transnistria – right next to Ukraine, where tensions are already on the rise with Russia – this is one region we cannot let blow up.
Other regions to be watching: Nagorno-Karabakh, Northern Cyprus, and Southern Sudan. The only “nice” thing about the first Cold War is that the world at least appeared a whole lot more stable then.
